For the moment, Arroyo is beloved. Practically everyone in the country is united behind her. Last week bankers toasted her with champagne. Generals escorted her to speeches. Professors and labor leaders ate breakfast with her. The stock index surged 30 percent and even the beleaguered peso gained some strength. “We have a chance to renew our values as a people,” said Dan Songco, the Manila-based leader of several nongovernmental organizations. The good will may not last very long, however, unless Arroyo proves quickly that she can lead the country. She wasted no time setting a new tone. She began her first day of work before 6 a.m.–a huge contrast to Estrada, who would sometimes not show up at his office until the afternoon, nursing a hangover.
In 1986 Corazon Aquino came to power with the backing of a similarly broad coalition–and her government soon collapsed into bitter factionalism. To be sure, there are very real differences between People Power I and II. Aquino had no government experience. Arroyo is a veteran politician, trained economist and daughter of a former president. Arroyo will need all her skill and political experience in her new job, for she faces formidable challenges–not least improving the country’s feeble economy. It’s bad enough that the Philippines is impoverished. But now the country is running a large budget deficit, which will make it difficult for the president to throw money at pressing problems. Beyond that, she must tackle the twin peaks of corruption and cronyism. “The root of our problems is that the judicial and political structures are weak,” says an executive of a stock brokerage in Manila.
Arroyo’s first major test will be deciding Estrada’s fate. He’s living in his mansion in a Manila suburb, and still harbors a notion of a return to power. Last week he issued a statement saying that he was still the president, since he had not formally resigned. Rumors of a coup attempt surfaced briefly, but were quickly discounted by the military. The Philippine military does want a graceful exit for the folksy Estrada, who is still a favorite of the poor and popular with some Army officers. But many intellectuals and activists demand he be treated harshly. Some even suggest he may be guilty of “economic plunder,” a crime that carries the death penalty. The issue is coming to a head rapidly. On Monday an Estrada representative tried to withdraw a large sum of money from a Citibank account. As the bank manager sought legal advice, a crowd formed outside. The agent fled. The government swiftly froze all of Estrada’s assets, and banned him and his friends and family from fleeing the country.
In the Philippines, the military remains the ultimate political arbiter, and Arroyo will have to maintain its support. After Chief of Staff Angelo Reyes abandoned Estrada last week, some officers reportedly questioned the need to hand power over to yet another civilian leader. Reyes told them he was simply bowing to the wishes of the people. For Filipinos, his attitude signals a new recognition by the military that it should no longer try to run the country. “The military cannot be seen as taking the lead in political maneuvers, because whenever it tried to do so in the past, it fell on its face,” says Randy Davide, a sociology professor who led thousands of students to the demonstrations. “They learned their lessons.”
Over the long term, Arroyo’s toughest task will be balancing needed reforms against the often opposing interests of powerful groups. Last Thursday she faced her first setback when Defense Minister Orlando Mercado abruptly resigned in opposition to Arroyo’s choice of national-security adviser. No matter: she quickly named an acting successor. It’s only been a week, but Arroyo seems confident and decisive. In that sense, at least, the Philippines already seems in better hands.
